With the promotion of electric vehicles by many car companies, a new round of battery material competition is intensifying. Electric vehicle battery depends on a large number of raw materials, such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite, and some vehicles even use rare earth resources.
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Last year, battery material prices soared. In the past year and a half, the price of raw materials for cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has increased by more than 190%.
Car manufacturers and battery manufacturers are signing agreements with major miners. As the number of electric vehicles grows and national government policies relax, future vehicles will shift from diesel locomotives to electric vehicles, and the demand for various types of battery metals will undoubtedly increase.
According to the International Energy Agency, the number of electric vehicles on the road reached 2 million in 2016. It is estimated that the number of electric vehicles on the road will reach at least 40 million in 2040. Some international major miners are undergoing business transformation to supply the lithium-ion battery market. BHP Billiton said that 2017 will become a "tipping point" for the development of electric vehicles.
In September of this year, Great Wall Motor of China signed an agreement with Australian miner Pilbara Minerals to ensure the supply of Li mine in the next five years.
Financial speculators also joined the action, Cobalt27 hoarded more than 2,000 tons of cobalt, and Chinese hedge fund (Shanghaihosfund), Shanghai Chaos (Shanghai Chaos) also hoarded a lot of cobalt.
Insufficient supply of cobalt, and the dynamic changes in prices have become a major problem for car manufacturers and battery manufacturers. Currently 65% ​​of cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, one of the poorest countries in the world. UBS analysts believe that demand for cobalt will double by 2020 to nearly 200,000 tons per year. To this end, there is a need for an expanding mining project to avoid the plight of material shortages for a long time to come.
Although lithium resources are more abundant, in the next few years, there will still be a shortage of supply, as new mining projects are still difficult to meet supply needs. According to Goldman Sachs, as of 2025, lithium demand is expected to be more than four times the current level, which will be as high as 779,000 tons. However, the advancement of new mining projects and the realization of mass production are facing obstacles.
At present, lithium metal is mainly purified from hard rock in Australia and brines in the South American desert. If you want to develop a new mining project, you can only look at Argentina. Although Bolivia also has a large reserve of Li deposits, there is a higher magnesium deposit. Bolivia's lithium mine is not suitable because impurities affect quality.
However, the commodity futures market is also facing a core uncertainty: the future of battery technology. Battery manufacturers are cutting the amount of cobalt in their batteries due to high prices and high levels of uncertainty. In September, Johnson Matthey, a UK-based sustainable technology company, announced that it has developed a new high-performance battery material that uses both lithium and nickel but reduces cobalt. The amount used. According to investment bank LiberumCapital, nickel helps to increase the battery's power, which costs 1/6 of cobalt and 20 times that of cobalt. It is estimated that the demand for battery-grade nickel will increase from 75,000 tons last year to 400,000 tons in 2025 (depending on the specific composition and content of each material).
In the long run, battery companies are looking to renovate battery designs. Dyson in the UK is also planning to enter the market for your car in 2020. Its models will use solid-state batteries and will launch its new model by the end of 2020. These batteries use a safer solid-state material to replace the electrolytes commonly used in current batteries.
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