High-priced electricity has always been a difficult problem on the road to construction in China, and the high cost of electricity generation has always been an important factor restricting the development of new energy in China. Using new energy for power generation not only caters to the strategy of sustainable development, but also reduces the burden on the environment.
However, after a series of blowout-type industries broke out and technological innovations progressed, the photovoltaic industry ushered in a period of continuous adjustment. At the same time, as the price of the Internet is approaching, the state subsidy retreat is hanging high on the industry.
As renewable energy such as photovoltaics has the advantages of being clean, environmentally friendly and renewable, its cost is relatively high. In the initial stage of development, it needs government subsidies to support it.
However, due to the rapid expansion of the installed capacity of renewable energy such as photovoltaics, the subsidy gap has continued to grow. According to data from the National Energy Administration, the funding gap for new energy subsidies such as wind power and photovoltaics in China has increased from RMB 40 billion at the end of 2015 to RMB 60 billion at the end of 2016.
Meng Xianzhe, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, told reporters that according to the “Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014~2020)â€, by 2020, wind power will be equivalent to coal power on-grid tariffs, and no subsidies will be given. Photovoltaic power generation The proposed goal is to have a comparable electricity price to the grid on the user side by 2020, and distributed subsidies will no longer be subsidized. This means that the above-mentioned renewable energy power can no longer rely on subsidies under the premise of lower cost of electricity, and can be developed through market competition.
How PV Companies Cross the "Zero Subsidy" Gully
At the end of last year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Adjusting On-grid Price of Land-based Wind Power Benchmarking for Photovoltaic Power Generation. After January 1, 2017, the price of photovoltaic power generation benchmarks in China's three types of electricity price regions was adjusted again, and the post-reduction tariff level was revised. It is 0.65 yuan/kWh for category I area, 0.75 yuan/kWh for category II area, 0.85 yuan/kWh for category III area, 0.15 yuan, 0.13 yuan, and 0.13 yuan per kilowatt hour compared to 2016, distributed photovoltaic power generation The subsidy standard is not adjusted. It is still 0.42 yuan/kWh. In this regard, Tuo Ri Xineng Dong Mi Yang Guoqiang said that the downward trend in subsidies in the future will definitely affect the photovoltaic industry, leaving the state subsidies for most companies will appear cost inversion.
President Yang also pointed out that the state subsidy slope reduction mechanism is still rhythmical. It has not been measured according to the industry's lowest cost and highest conversion efficiency, but has been moderately lowered according to the average level, leaving room for industry enterprises, especially those that are better than their peers. Taking Tecsun New Energy as an example, the construction cost of power plants has fallen by more than 40% since 2013. The cost of 1 watt and 9 yuan is now reduced to about 5-6 yuan, while the price of electricity is reduced from 1 yuan, 0.95 yuan and 0.9 yuan respectively in the same period. The 0.75 yuan, 0.65 yuan, and 0.55 yuan that were implemented after 630 this year are still lower than the price reduction.
According to the introduction, Tuoli Xineng was incorporated in 2002 and was one of the earliest solar energy companies in China. It became the first pure solar energy enterprise to land on the domestic capital market in February 2008. It is the earliest domestic company to rely on independent research and development to produce amorphous silicon at the same time. Monocrystalline silicon, polysilicon solar cell chip companies. The entire industrial chain layout has enabled it to have the most comprehensive technology in the solar cell industry and continuous optimization of cost control.
According to Mr. Yang, the cost reductions come from many sources. First, the decline in raw materials, and second, the cost reduction brought about by technological innovation. This is beneficial to the whole industry. There are two important points for the extension of the new energy: equipment technology. Manufacturing capacity, and cost control throughout the industry chain.
Topsun New Energy has strong equipment manufacturing capabilities, capable of independently designing and manufacturing 100% amorphous silicon solar cell production line equipment and 80% crystalline silicon solar cell production line equipment, and a number of equipment technologies have filled the gaps in the domestic market and do not rely on imports. It can quickly realize the up-line and upgrade of the production line and realize cost control from the source of production.
The best cost control in the whole industry chain is reflected in the investment and construction of photovoltaic power plants: the two major cost components for the construction of photovoltaic power plants; first, hardware components such as modules and photovoltaic brackets, and over 60% of them are developed and manufactured by Tuoli Xinergy. The other part is the construction cost. The Tuoli Xineng team has achieved complete self-construction from design, design, and operation and maintenance, has a good quality from the source, and has the ability to undertake the EPC project from abroad and become a new growth point of profit.
Costs force technical innovation, 0 subsidy parity Internet access will lead to industry outbreak
Yang Guoqiang stated that the cost of subsidy for retreating the surface of the slope is actually driving the PV companies to raise their technological level, and the pattern of long-term dependence on state subsidies is not sustainable. To reduce costs, the most important thing is technological innovation.
According to the statistics released by the National Energy Administration, China's newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was 34.54 million kilowatts in 2016, with a cumulative installed capacity of 77.42 million kilowatts. New and cumulative installed capacity continued to rank first in the world.
At the same time as the scale of installed capacity is leading the world, the cost of the photovoltaic industry has also dropped significantly in recent years. According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, China's silicon material cost decreased by 44.4%, component costs decreased by 41.6%, and inverter costs decreased by 57.1% from 2013 to 2016.
According to data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, in the second half of 2016, the average photovoltaic cost of the global PV has dropped from US$100/MWh to US$86/MWh, a decrease of 15%. The main reason for the decline in photovoltaic power costs is due to the decline in technology costs and the increasing competition in global projects. It is estimated that in 2017, the cost of electricity for global photovoltaics will further drop by 20%.
The driving force behind the cost reduction is the continuous innovation of technology. At this year's SNEC photovoltaic exhibition, new products and new technologies emerged one after another. Among them, Longji Leye launched an upgraded Hi-MO2 module. It is reported that this product is based on Hi-MO1 low attenuation technology, combined with double-sided technology, the first year light failure rate can be lower than 2%, the average annual attenuation is less than 0.45%. In addition, companies such as Trina Solar and Jinko Energy also launched PERC dual-core modules and PERC multi-gate single crystal modules.
"According to the current development of the industry, it is speculated that in the next three to five years, photovoltaics should be able to achieve parity online." A photovoltaic power plant developers responsible person optimistic estimates to reporters.
Atsus’s chairman, Xiaoxuan Yan, also believes that photovoltaic generation price online will be realized in advance. During the 2016 International Energy Revolution Forum, Miao Xiaoyu stated that Baotou “leader†bidding had a lowest offer of 0.52 yuan/kWh, which was lower than the average commercial/commercial electricity price of 0.5253 yuan in western Inner Mongolia. Ju Xiaoxuan judged that in 2018, "the scenery will be the same price", and in 2022, the "fire price will be the same price."
According to the roadmap of GCL PV technology, the cost of polysilicon is expected to drop to US$8/kg in 2019, and the cost of high-efficiency components is expected to fall below 2.4 yuan/W. The cost roadmap shows that before June 2019, GCL Group realized a unit investment of PV power plant estimated at RMB 5.5/watt; the cost of photovoltaic power generation in the central and western regions of China will fall to RMB 0.4/kWh, which is equal to the price of nuclear power; The electricity cost of electricity generation has dropped to 0.5~0.55 yuan/kWh, which is equal to that of natural gas power generation.
Li Zhenguo, president of Longji, believes that the progress of the PV industry over the past few years exceeds everyone's imagination. I believe that in 2 to 3 years, achieving parity Internet access is a definite event in most parts of the world, including most of China.
Dongguan City Yuanyue Electronics Co.Ltd , https://www.yyeconn.com