It is also the time for the new quarterly earnings report. For Apple, which is about to release its financial report for the third fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2016, this quarter's financial report is unlikely to perform well. From the current data, Apple, iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, Mac, the four main products, the two major key revenue markets in the United States and the United States are not optimistic about the performance of the quarter. In the quarter, Apple is very likely to continue the trend of the previous two quarters. While earning more than anyone else, the ceiling for growth appears to be more obvious than anyone else.
A lot of data points to Apple's quarterly earnings may not perform well, it is difficult to surprise the market
From the revenue structure of Apple’s financial report, the four hardware product lines of iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple Watch constitute the absolute core of Apple’s financial report. From the perspective of the revenue constitution, the American, Greater China, and European markets The three regions are the core of the Apple revenues region. In the product line, from the perspective of weight, the performance of the iPhone is undoubtedly the key to Apple's revenue. From the revenue region, the key markets that affect Apple’s revenue are the Chinese and American markets. However, many current data show that the two most important factors affecting Apple’s revenue are under pressure in this quarter. In addition, the performance of Apple's other product lines during the quarter is also unsatisfactory.
1. Data show that the iPhone sales in the second quarter were lower than market expectations, and the market share of iPhone in the two major markets in China and the United States fell to varying degrees.
(1) Forecast data show that iPhone sales in the quarter were about 40 million, lower than market expectations
According to Bloomberg data, iPhone’s shipments in the third fiscal quarter may drop by 18.4% year-on-year, while channel inventory may decline by US$2 billion, which will result in a decrease in profit margin of 400 basis points to 37%. RBC analysts also forecast that Apple’s iPhone shipments in the third quarter totaled 39.5 million units and its sales sales were lower than market expectations. As the Chinese market for Apple's revenue growth rate, this quarter, Apple's market performance may not be optimistic. Previously, Baidu used map data to predict that Apple’s income in China will fall by 20% this quarter.
(2) iPhone market share in the quarter fell in different degrees both in China and the United States.
In Apple’s home market, the US market Kantar Wordpanel Comtech recently revealed that in the second quarter of the US smartphone market, Samsung accounted for 37% of the market, compared with Apple’s 29%. In the Chinese market, Apple's iPhone performance in the second quarter was also not optimistic. It showed a two-month decline in market share.
According to the latest data from Counterpoint, the iPhone’s market share in China’s smartphone market dropped by 1.2% in May and recorded a 10.8% market share in May, dropping from the previous third place to fifth place; according to the “first mobile phone industry†website in June The project covers 167 cities in 25 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions across the country. Statistics on 6156 offline mobile phone stores show that sales of iPhone offline have changed from the previous fourth to sixth.
2. The iPad, Apple Watch, and Mac's three major product lines performed poorly in the second quarter
While the performance of the iPhone was poor, the three product lines of Apple iPad, Apple Watch, and Mac also performed poorly this quarter. The iPad had already fallen into a recession for several consecutive quarters, and it was difficult to achieve a good performance in the current quarter; Apple Watch and Mac computers had different degrees of decline in sales in the second quarter.
According to a report released by market research company IDC, Apple Watch shipments dropped to 1.6 million units in the second quarter, down 55% year-on-year, making it the only one among the top five manufacturers in the season to have a decline in sales.
The performance of Mac computers in the second quarter was also not optimistic. According to the second quarter shipment report of the global PC market released by market research company IDC and Gartner, Apple's Mac computers in the quarter saw a decline in shipments. IDC data show that: Apple’s Mac shipments totaled 4.42 million units in the quarter, down 8.3% from the 4.82 million units sold in the same period last year. According to Gartner’s data, Apple’s shipments totaled 4.559 million units in the quarter, which was 4.769 million units compared to the same period last year. Taiwan fell 4.9%.
To sum up, we can see that: In the second quarter, for Apple, it can be said that the house leaks face rain overnight. The key four major product lines of Apple’s revenue, the two major revenue markets of China and the United States, are not optimistic about performance in the second quarter. All kinds of data point to, indicate that Apple may in turn bring a financial report that does not satisfy the capital market.
Second, Apple's quarterly earnings may perform poorly behind the reasons
Then the question also came, affecting Apple's main products and the main revenue areas have a decline in the situation, leading to the third quarter of fiscal year 2016 fiscal earnings or difficult to surprise the market, what are the factors behind? Personally think that leaving aside international exchange rate changes and other factors, the reasons may have the following aspects.
1. Consumers have a clear wait-and-see attitude toward new iPhones
Since Apple has always arranged the release time of heavyweight products such as the iPhone in the fall, the third quarter has always been a low point for its revenue. Before the arrival of new products, consumers have a clear wait-and-see attitude. This quarter, for the majority of consumers who do not have the urge to switch machines, the wait-and-see attitude will be more people's choices. First, if the new iPhone products are worth upgrading, on the other hand, according to Apple's practice, after the new products are listed, , old products will have different levels of price reductions.
2.The iPhone 6S series enters the final stage of influence and has limited appeal to consumers
From the iPhone 6s itself, as a small year product, although Apple introduced 3D-Touch function and comprehensively improved the intrinsic quality of the fuselage configuration, since its introduction, the industry is filled with iPhone innovation and lack of progress. Insufficient sincerity. And in the current, iPhone 6S series has entered the final phase of influence, for iPhone users, the iPhone 6s series has limited appeal.
3. Samsung S7 series flagship product performance eye-catching, high-end streaming iPhone users
When the iPhone 6S was accused of product upgrades that lacked sincerity and reduced influence, its flagship S7 series, which was able to compete with rival Samsung in the high-end market, was able to achieve a high-end diversion of the iPhone. The flagship S7 series launched by Samsung this year has won praise from the industry. Earlier, Samsung's financial report is expected to show: Samsung Electronics' operating profit may reach 6.9 billion US dollars in the second quarter, a record high of nearly two years. The S7 series of mobile phones may reach 15 million units in the second quarter. The cumulative sales of the S7 series have reached 25 million. According to data from Kantar Wordpanel Comtech, in the second quarter of the US market, sales of the Samsung Galaxy S7 series were also ahead of the 14.6% of the iPhone 6s series in sales of the main machine.
4. The progress of domestic manufacturers’ products is obvious, and the demand in the third and fourth tier cities has risen, causing Apple to be under pressure in the Chinese market.
The above data shows that in the second quarter, Apple’s pressure on the Chinese market was significant. In recent years, the strong rise of domestic manufacturers is an important factor affecting Apple's performance in the Chinese market. The rapid progress of domestic smart phone products and Apple's unattainable channel advantages have caused Apple to lose market share in the Chinese market in the second quarter.
(1) The current domestic smart phone products have almost no difference from Apple in terms of main functions, and even surpass them in multiple dimensions, such as photographing, fast charging, endurance, etc., and localization is more localized. Advantages and price/performance advantages.
(2) With the gradual saturation of the demand for smart phone market in the first and second tier cities, the demand for replacement in the third and fourth tier cities and the urban market began to rise. The domestic mobile phone market has entered the channel year, and the dominant role of the offline channel began to appear. For Apple, in the domestic market, its advantages range from first-tier cities to second-tier cities. Faced with the rise of third and fourth-tier cities and the needs of urban markets, it is difficult for Apple to take advantage of local channels such as OPPO, vivo, and Huawei. The manufacturers compete. From the data, it can be seen that the products of Huawei, OPPO and vivo in the second quarter continued to sell well, occupying the top three in domestic sales.
To sum up: Apple iPhone 6S is in a bad position behind Apple’s earnings report in the quarter. (As a small-year product, feature upgrades are not yet attractive to consumers, but they are caught in the need to release large screens. Between the iPhone 6 and the upcoming iPhone 7, allowing consumers to hold a coin, there are also strong competitors (Samsung Galaxy S7 series in the global high-end market acclaimed, applauded; domestic smart phone manufacturers Huawei, OPPO, vivo , millet strong performance in the domestic market, the midstream closure) and many other factors.
Third, it is still too early to see bad apples.
In the face of the poor financial performance and the underlying reasons, the answer to the other question is clearer here. It is too early to say that it is still too early to see a bad apple.
It is true that from the performance of the previous quarters of the product, Apple’s current sales have already shown peak trends. The growth and innovation of competitors, but also allows consumers to have more choices in product selection is not the only possibility, and the overall slowdown in China's market growth, have made Apple face more challenges. But it depends on whether the bad apple is still slow.
1.iPhone 7 or will once again promote the outbreak of Apple's sales
From the most realistic factors, the arrival of new Apple products may once again promote the outbreak of Apple's sales. For the upcoming iPhone 7, it is reported that it will bring better camera effects (such as adding a dual camera), three anti-function, fast charging technology, cancel the headset interface, A10 processor, iOS10 system, a new color and a new antenna opening design A series of changes. These changes can be said to be a major upgrade for Apple products. I believe that they can stab many G-points that hold potential iPhone users. Previous research reports also showed that the iPhone's update needs are gathering. A survey of more than 1,000 users, such as equipment quality assurance service provider Insurance2Go, revealed that half of iPhone users plan to upgrade immediately after the launch of iPhone 7, and nearly 80% of iPhone users choose to upgrade on or after the iPhone 7 release date.
2. The Indian market appears to have a turnaround, or will release the Chinese market growth pressure on the status quo
With the slowdown in the growth of smartphone sales in the Chinese market, it goes without saying that Apple needs to look for the next potential market. As with domestic manufacturers, Apple also regards the Indian market as the first choice. However, after Apple's development in the Indian market was not smooth, related reports said that Apple’s plan to open retail stores in India was blocked due to non-compliance with relevant Indian policy requirements. However, Apple is currently enjoying good news in the Indian market. India has given green light to Apple. Current information shows that India’s latest policy stipulates that single-brand retailers sell “advanced technology†products, and that within the first three years they could not meet the requirement of 30% localization. The potential of the Indian market is undoubted. As most commentators believe that if the Indian market is properly developed, Apple will find the next Chinese market.
3. Apple's ambitions in the mid-range market, or pose a serious challenge to domestic manufacturers
In the face of the rise of domestic smart phones, the two giants, Apple and Samsung, which are currently still in the domestic market, have all moved. Samsung currently launches the Galaxy C series specifically for the Chinese market, which competes with the domestic mid-range. In March of this year, Apple also introduced a mid-range product, the iPhone SE. Although the performance in the domestic market is flat, the US market has been eye-catching, and for domestic manufacturers, iPhone SE released a very dangerous signal. As described in the previous article: Apple can use the strong configuration and sincerity price on the iPhone SE to attract internal small-screen stock users to upgrade, then maybe on a certain day, Apple will also use this device on the large-screen iPhone, and competition. Opponents compete for users.
4. Apple is still the industry leader
In addition to these realities, Apple’s ability to lead the industry in terms of products and functions, control of the pace of product technology renewal, and the overall ecology and experience of iOS are currently considered to be a ride. The state of dust. And in line with Apple’s strong cash reserve foundation, Apple may face the dilemma of boat turnaround, and in these hot areas, Apple has a layout action. It can be said that in the foreseeable moment, Apple will still be the industry. The leader.
Conclusion:
Consumers wait and see attitude before the arrival of new products, the late entry of iPhone 6S influence, the strong momentum of competitor Samsung Galaxy S7 series; domestic smart phone manufacturers Huawei, OPPO, vivo, millet in the domestic market, etc. The impact of this has made it difficult for Apple to come up with a financial report that will surprise the market this season. But also as mentioned above, the upcoming launch of Apple’s new generation of products, including the iPhone 7, the positive trend of changes in Indian market policies, Apple’s actions in the mid-end market and Apple’s own industry’s leading position, are all declaring Apple’s decline. It is too early.
Note: All images in this article are from the internet.
This article from the Tencent News client from the media does not represent Tencent News's views and positions.
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