Backlight and lighting two-wheel drive LED industry

Since 2005, the LED industry has been widely used in mobile phones, display screens, etc. In 2008, it was catalyzed by NoteBook-mini's backlight applications, quickly entering various types of backlight applications, such as NB, Moniotor, and TV. It is expected that the backlight penetration will continue to increase in the future, especially in the monitors and TVs of medium- and large-size backlights, as well as Pad in emerging areas. The penetration and volume will continue to grow at a high rate. In the lighting industry, the scale and industry will gradually increase. Improve, improve the overall efficiency of LED, LED lighting product terminal prices will continue to decline, the penetration rate will also be accelerated, the LED industry's overall output value will continue to grow.

It is expected that the LED backlight market will still be a major contributor in 2013. From the perspective of terminals, the ability of backlight applications to grow in 2013 is mainly TV and Pad. Among them, there are several factors that drive the growth of TV: One is the continuous penetration of the backlight field. According to relevant research agency data, the penetration rate will range from about 70% in 2012 to over 90% in 2013; Large-sized terminal shipments will continue to increase in the proportion, and it is expected that the growth rate in 2013 will be 5%-10%, which is expected to approach 10%. Thirdly, emerging markets, including China, are expected to grow at a rate of about 15% from the perspective of emerging markets. It shows that the growth rate of emerging markets is the main driving force for growth. Fourth, with the change of consumer habits, the average size of TVs is growing. According to DisplaySearch research, TV has an average size of 34.5 inches (diagonal) in 2011 and is expected to reach 36.5 inches (diagonal) by 2013. As the size increases, the number of LEDs will increase. Therefore, as the size increases, the average number of required chips will increase, which can effectively offset the factors that lead to the decrease in the number of used chips.

From the perspective of Pad's products (all LED backlight products), Apple's Pad 1 inflated the flat panel market in 2010. After continuous high growth in 2011 and 2012, it is expected that 2013 will continue to maintain a relatively high growth rate. There is still more than 40% growth, which is mainly due to the continued launch of new Apple products, ipad-mini and NewIpad (will enter the Chinese market in the near future). In addition, with the increase in terminal recognition of tablet computers, non-ipad series of tablet computers will Android system update, Win8 startup, 2013 growth rate will exceed the ipad system, reaching 60-70% growth rate, especially in emerging markets, domestic non-ipad-based products will increase rapidly; the third growth driver is mainly The recognition of the pad has improved and the white pad has grown rapidly. According to Digtimes research, the white-brand pad has shown strong growth momentum in 2012, with a growth rate of 388% in 2012 and an increase of 38% in 2013.

In a comprehensive view, with the increase in penetration and the high growth in the regional market, coupled with the increase in the ratio of backlight localization purchases in the localization of the Chinese panel industry, it is expected that the LED backlight market in Mainland China will still have a 30% to 40% growth rate in 2013. , It is expected that with the policy stimulus is expected to reach 40% growth.

In 2013, the lighting market is expected to be well connected to the integrated lighting application market. The average annual growth rate in 2011-2016 is 20%, mainly including alternative lighting, architectural lighting, retail lighting, commercial lighting, entertainment lighting, security lighting, and raster lighting. , portable lighting, residential lighting, outdoor lighting, etc., in which the growth of alternative lighting, architectural lighting, retail lighting, commercial lighting, Jiang Chao, the average growth rate of the industry, the compound annual growth rate in 2011-2016 is expected to be more than 20%, The average annual growth rate of retail lighting, commercial lighting and architectural lighting is 48%, 23% and 27%. From the perspective of the proportion, commercial lighting accounted for the largest proportion in 2012, about 3 to 40%, followed by architectural lighting, portable lighting, and alternative lighting accounting for 10% to 20%, and commercial lighting is expected to remain in 2013. The largest proportion is still 30% to 40%, and other lighting areas have changed, but the overall situation will not be too great. With the continuous improvement of LED technology and price reductions in 2014-2015, it is expected that the proportion of applications using LEDs will change, but there will be no major changes in the main areas of use.

It is expected that the policy will still be a big driver in 2013. From a global point of view, the elimination of incandescent lamps has entered a critical period. Since 2012-2013, 60-75W incandescent lamps have entered an accelerated phase-out phase. The influencing factors are far greater than those of 75w. The above incandescent lamp is eliminated (40-75W is expected to account for about 70% of incandescent lamps); in addition, due to the impact of the Japanese 311 earthquake, the global denuclearization process has accelerated the elimination of incandescent lamps and the replacement of new light sources. From the point of view, in the major countries and regions where incandescent lamps are phased out in 2013, 75-, 60-, and 40-hour phase-out window periods will be banned. From the perspective of coverage, the United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, the United Kingdom, Australia, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea , China and other places have entered the period of prohibition and elimination of incandescent lamps. Therefore, it will greatly stimulate the replacement and use of new light sources, and accelerate the promotion and use of LED lighting.

From the perspective of LED development plans in various countries, the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Japan, and China have proposed time charts of LED lighting product substitution rates, of which South Korea and Japan are particularly active. South Korea proposes that the LED replacement rate for government office lighting in 2012 is 30. % In 2015, ensure that LED lighting products enter the 30% general lighting market; Japan proposes 50% replacement rate of LED lighting in 2015, 100% replacement rate of LED lighting products in 2020, and 100% usage of LED lighting in 2030. After undergoing product promotion, certification, and standard gradual improvement and improvement in 2010-2012, LED will enter a critical period in 2013. The promotion of the policy will be a strong guarantee for the achievement of the 2015 target.

Judging from the mainland of China, since October 2011, a draft of the “China's Phase-out Strategy for Phase-out of Incandescent Lamps” has been issued. In November, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Organizing and Conducting the 2012 Financial Subsidy for the Promotion of the Semiconductor Lighting Industry in the Year”, 2012. 5 In the month of the 12th Five-Year Plan of the National Basic Service System, the State Council proposed subsidies for energy-saving appliances, mainly for televisions and lighting products, of which 2.2 billion were mainly for lighting products, and Guangdong, Anhui, Jiangxi, and Henan at the provincial and municipal levels. Shandong and other places have relevant plans to increase the investment and lighting application of LED in all aspects during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. It is expected that the scale of the market will be more than 10 billion. At the local level, nearly 30 cities have introduced relevant promotion and subsidy programs, mainly accelerating urban road lighting, public lighting, and architectural lighting, among which Guangzhou, Dongguan, Huizhou, Foshan, Qingdao, Nanchang, Ningbo, Weifang, Yangzhou, Baoding and other places. It is more active and it is expected that the investment in each region will be more than 1 billion.

Judging from the implementation schedule, the result of the central government's bidding in October 2012 was announced as a landmark event, which stimulated the provinces and cities to refer to the central bidding form and accelerated the promotion and implementation of LED lighting, which has recently been reflected in Qingyuan, Dongguan, Guangdong. There are many government public lighting tender announcements in Zhuhai, Zhuhai, Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway and other places. We believe that the overall volume of government bidding projects will be reflected in 2013, and the company’s performance is mainly reflected in 2013. Therefore, we believe that 2013 may be a real LED policy. Year of implementation.

The market with high electricity price starts faster and the market with longer lighting starts faster. The replacement of traditional light sources by LED lighting is mainly subject to price, light efficiency, lighting time and comprehensive cost considerations. In fact, it is mainly the impact of investment recovery cycle and scale. From the perspective of lighting applications, lighting is currently used in general lighting, commercial lighting, chain lighting, and factory lighting.

The main difference from each application field lies in the length of the lighting time and the size of the unit volume. From the lighting time point of view, general lighting is generally 5-6 hours / day, the shortest, followed by commercial lighting (integrated shopping malls, architectural lighting, department stores, etc.), supermarket chain lighting (Family, Rosen, 7-11, Lianhua, Wal-Mart, Carrefour, Suning, etc.), factory lighting (semiconductor industry, LCD panel industry, precision processing industry, PV industry, etc. are mostly 24-hour lighting), and its lighting time is gradually increasing; from the perspective of replacement scale, home lighting is amazing 100 lights/home, but the number of lighting in a single store is expected to be several times that of home lighting, and chain lighting and factory lighting can directly generate economic benefits.

Calculated from the length of lighting time, as shown in the above table, factory lighting is expected to recover costs in about six months, chain lighting is expected in about 1 year, commercial lighting is expected to be about 1.5 years, home lighting in about 2 years. Therefore, combining the scale effect of the factory and the chain lighting is more willing to replace, so we believe that LED lighting must first be replaced and penetrated in the field of factory lighting and chain lighting, commercial lighting, and finally home lighting.

Considering the urgency of replacement from the perspective of electricity price, assume the comparison of 0.5 yuan/kwh, 0.7 yuan/kwh, 1 yuan/kwh, 1.5 yuan kwh, and 2 yuan/kwh, respectively, in the general lighting field, commercial lighting field, chain lighting, In terms of factory lighting, the higher the electricity price, the shorter the investment recovery cycle, and the difference between the highest-grade and lowest-grade investment recovery cycle in similar applications is 4 times. Therefore, comprehensively, high-priced western countries are more motivated to promote and replace LED lighting. . According to the comparison of electricity prices in various regions of the world, electricity prices in European countries and regions are relatively high, such as Germany, Spain, Italy, etc. In addition, electricity prices in Australia and Japan are also higher. Therefore, we believe that LED lighting penetration in countries and regions where electricity prices are relatively high promotes faster implementation and stronger willingness.