Solar energy has the advantages of renewable and environmental protection. This advantage has made solar energy, as a key development of new energy industry, in many countries including China. The cost of photovoltaic power generation in 2008 is about 0.38 US dollars / kWh. The average cost of photovoltaic power generation this year is about 0.34 US dollars / kWh (about 2.3 yuan). It can be seen that compared with traditional fossil energy and even new energy such as wind power and nuclear power. The cost of photovoltaic power generation is obviously too high. It is well known that the cost of photovoltaic power generation is high, which is related to the relatively low technical level of China's photovoltaic power generation enterprises, which has restricted the healthy development of China's photovoltaic enterprises--compared with photovoltaic power generation enterprises in developed countries. The scale of China's photovoltaic industry is still very large. In recent years, due to the increasing market demand in Europe and the United States, China's photovoltaic industry has achieved rapid development, and the average annual growth rate in the past five years has reached more than 40%. In the context of the country's support for photovoltaic power generation enterprises, the prospects for the future photovoltaic industry will be even broader.
Policy support for the sunshine industry
Stimulated by high oil prices at the beginning of last year, many countries launched the photovoltaic industry incentive policy. The demand for solar cells increased by 56% in the first half of last year. Currently, PV consumption mainly comes from Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and other countries. The subsidy policy of these countries adopts the fixed on-grid tariff method. With the support of this policy, the PV installation cost will be reduced by about 15% in the case of a 25% drop in solar module prices; the PV user's investment yield will rise sharply, which means that huge demand starts.
Recently, the launch of the concession bidding project for the Dunhuang 10MW grid-connected photovoltaic power generation project marks the era of China's official entry into large-scale photovoltaic power generation. According to industry sources, production at a bid price of 0.69 yuan / kWh will certainly be a loss. However, the reason why enterprises are willing to sacrifice short-term interests and accumulate project experience with large-scale grid-connected power generation project contracting operators is mainly because domestic PV companies have already seen that China's large-scale promotion of photovoltaic grid-connected power generation is a general trend. Moreover, the introduction of a formal photovoltaic grid-connected power generation subsidy policy has also been considered by the relevant state departments.
In terms of the overall development of the photovoltaic industry, the bidding of photovoltaic grid-connected projects led by the government, despite the short-term competitive price reduction phenomenon, can effectively promote the reduction of solar power generation costs. The optimistic forecast shows that within three years, China's photovoltaic power generation costs are expected to be in line with the cost of traditional fossil energy power generation.
Not only that, on March 31, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance pointed out that the subsidy standard for solar photovoltaic building application demonstration in 2009 was determined to be 20 yuan / watt, accounting for nearly 50% of the current system cost. After the subsidy, the power generation cost was reduced to 1 yuan / Degree, greatly enhanced the competitiveness of optoelectronics. Undoubtedly, such a policy will quickly reduce the cost of photovoltaic power, which will help solar energy transform into civilian energy.
The collective dilemma of the sunshine industry chain
The photovoltaic power industry chain from upstream to downstream, its industrial chain includes polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips and battery components. In the industrial chain, from polysilicon to battery components, the technical threshold for production is getting lower and lower. Accordingly, the number of companies is also increasing. Therefore, the profit of the entire photovoltaic industry chain is mainly concentrated in the upstream polysilicon production link, and the profitability of upstream enterprises is significantly better than the downstream. At present, domestic polysilicon production has the most profit, which is about 52%%; the profit of battery module production accounts for about 18%; and the profit of battery chip and wafer production accounts for about 17% and 13% respectively.
Polysilicon capacity expansion is too fast, and relatively slow demand growth is the main factor leading to price declines. Experts predict that in 2009, global polysilicon supply will double, while demand growth is only 34%. Therefore, the price of polysilicon is likely to fall further. Since 2008, polysilicon prices have begun to decline significantly. Up to now, the domestic spot price of polysilicon has dropped from $500/kg last year to $100/kg to $150/kg. By 2010, the spot price of polysilicon will drop to $100/kg, which will greatly reduce the profitability of polysilicon suppliers.
Although the decline in polysilicon prices will increase the profit of cell manufacturers, whether it is the upstream polysilicon supplier or the downstream cell manufacturer, while entering the wafer business, the profit of the silicon business chain will be greatly increased. extrusion.
Sunshine Enterprise seeks breakthrough
With the spread of the financial crisis, solar energy products as alternative energy sources are facing severe challenges in economics. Wuxi Suntech, the world's largest producer of solar cells, had to suspend its massive expansion plan in the event of shrinking assets. Of course, although its expansion plan was forced to suspend, Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Suntech, who has 12 years of experience in solar cell research, has not stopped his research and development of new technologies and products.
Recently, Suntech announced that Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. is applying Pluto technology to its Pluto battery production line. Among them, the conversion rate of single crystal and polycrystalline photovoltaic cells is about 19% and 17% respectively. The traditional screen printing technology makes the conversion rate of single crystal and polycrystalline photovoltaic cells reach 16.5% and 15.5% respectively. Pluto technology can be traditional. The screen-printed photovoltaic cell adds about 12% of the power output. The unique mapping technology, with its low reflectivity, ensures that more sunlight is absorbed during the day, even in the absence of direct sunlight; Thin metal wires reduce shading losses. The technology can be applied to many different grades of silicon to suit a wide range of applications and product types.
Shi Zhengrong, chairman of Suntech, said: Pluto technology meets all the key requirements of the solar industry for solar products, that is, high conversion rate, high stability and high power output can be obtained without using higher-grade silicon materials. Customers can increase space utilization and reduce system component costs without increasing production costs, making the technology ideal for commercial scale production and roofing applications.
Although companies like Suntech have found breakthroughs in new technologies, some experts believe that mid- and downstream enterprises in the PV industry chain like Suntech will face two challenges: on the one hand, thin-film solar cells are the general trend of development in the future. US thin-film solar cells have surpassed crystalline silicon solar cells; on the other hand, the challenge comes from the maturity of physical polysilicon mass production processes. At present, the polysilicon production process uses a chemical method. Compared with the chemical method, the physical method has low cost, low energy consumption, no pollution, and is beneficial to environmental protection.
Some experts said that solar-powered leading companies like Suntech still have certain competitive advantages, but they must reduce production costs and get rid of overseas markets to develop.
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